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Create an “It Ain’t Gonna Happen to Me” List

By Robert Goyer / Published: Aug 16, 2011
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It goes without saying that the ultimate goal of any flight is to arrive safely. It’s no secret that certain kinds of accidents typically target certain kinds of pilots flying certain kinds of airplanes.

There are always a few accidents every year that involve freak or tough-to-defend-against events, like bird strikes or unforeseeable structural failures. While it would be nice to be able to cover all of the possibilities all the time, a smarter approach is to pay the most attention to the kinds of accidents that are most likely to happen to you.

Let’s say that you’re a VFR pilot who goes places with your airplane. What accident types are mostly likely to befall you? Flying into an area of IMC while still VFR and hitting the ground or losing control is a biggie. Another is running out of gas and having the subsequent forced landing go badly. Yet another is botching an approach and trying to make it work anyway. All three would be prime candidates for your “It Ain’t Gonna Happen to Me” list.

Pilots who fly for recreation might come up with a different list. Tops on that compilation would be be two well known killers: loss of control in the traffic pattern and loss of control while maneuvering (as the FAA puts it; I call it “loss of control while showing off.”)

Pilots who fly IFR for transportation would be wise to look carefully at icing encounters, thunderstorms, going below minimums on approach and, again, running out of gas.

There are ways to mitigate all of these risks; but before pilots can adopt those strategies, they need to admit the risk going in and be willing to keep an eye out for them every step of the trip.
Take VFR into IMC. There are normally signs that the weather is deteriorating, so the best response to this in-flght emergency is not to let it happen in the first place. But if it does, there’s no harm done as long as you go on the instruments immediately, make that 180 and head back to known VMC, all within total control. When it becomes an issue is when pilots get frozen, hoping beyond hope that things will get better all on their own and terrain or loss of control closes the curtain.

The best approach: Don’t let it happen. Know the risk--be it too-low weather on approach, a big cell right off your nose or a long day turning into night in high terrain--and tell yourself, “It ain’t gonna happen to me” and do something--the right thing--right then and right there to keep that promise to yourself.

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Hogey74's picture

I'm not going to press on rashly in the latter stages of a flight because I know the risks of get-there-itis multiply the closer you get to your destination. I expect to feel a little silly at some stage for being unnecessarily conservative but I will still celebrate my willingness to turn away, even if only because something "didn't feel right".

jimklick's picture

I recently was honored to receive the Wright Brothers Master Pilot Award from the FAA.
When asked for advice for younger pilots to help them achieve this longevity, I came up with
three rules:

1. When in doubt, don't. If the successful outcome of what you are about to do is
uncertain, stop and think.

2. Don't do nuthin dumb. The most often heard last words are "Hold my beer and watch this".

3, NEVER ever,ever,ever EVER trust a weather forcast. What you see through the
windshield supercedes all previous information.

Fly safe, live long.

Jim KLick
Pitts S1S N9JT

iused2fly's picture

Well said, Robert. For the VFR guy who inadvertently flies into IMC, a controlled 180 back to a known area of VMC is definitely the best way to extricate himself from that high risk situation. The problem comes when VFR pilots attempt such a 180 in IMC after months, if not years, since their last actual time "under the hood".

For that reason I have long advocated that the mandatory equipment list for certified VFR aircraft and complex homebuilts should include a functioning heading hold autopilot and heading bug. Such an equipment upgrade, while somewhat costly, makes it far easier to safely reverse direction without loss of control (LOC) —another far too common ending for VFRs who stumble into IMC.

Certainly there must be other examples where additional equipment and/or better currency/training might make the difference between high risk accident avoidance and becoming an accident statistic.

Flying with a slaved heading indicator or HSI makes it much harder to get lost than the pilot who uses a heading indicator with precession errors that must be managed every 15 minutes or so. A fuel totalizer provides much more relevant information on fuel status than those cheap, error prone $20 automotive style gas gauges we've been flying behind since the 1940s. Does it seem reasonable to anybody that a $350.000 182 has pair of crappy gs gauges? Doesn't having a totalizer help a pilot avoid running out of gas? Vortex generator kits help reduce both the stall speed and Vmc of light twins, so why aren't the installed as mandatory equipment at the factory? In all of these cases, why would manufacturers willingly exclude equipment that can be demonstrated to improve our collective safety?

Of course there is always the human factors/pilot error side of the equation. All the bells and whistles in the world won't prevent a poorly trained sky jockey from crashing into a mountain, or descending below approach minimums. If you fly once a week you're more likely to be safer than if you fly once a month, once a season or, God forbid, once a year. And don't forget this aviation axiom: "There are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots." Clearly, the choice is ours.

Just as Cirrus' "blue button" immediately returns the aircraft to level flight and holds heading, the above described ideas can demonstrably be proven to save lives every year, all around the world.

So this all boils down to whether we think making planes about $5000 cheaper is a better deal than flying more often and adding equipment proven to help mitigate against high risk situations. We choose which airplane we buy or rent, so we decide with our pocketbooks how much we are willing to pay for the potential benefits of enhanced safety. What we do with or without those benefits makes the difference between a safe flight, or a debris field off the approach end of the runway.

This pilot chooses safety, at almost any price. (Sorry, I stole that idea from F. Lee Bailey.)When I can no longer afford to maximize my flying safety, I'll quit and take up golf instead.

Douglas M
Surrey, British Columbia Canada

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