What is the surface wind doing at the airport? It can change from minute to minute but one thing is sure. If the surface wind at the airport suggests that it is under the influence of a thunderstorm, don't go there. Major airports have wind shear detection equipment that samples wind at locations around the airport and controllers use that information to de-velop wind shear alerts.
If an approach is begun in suspected thunderstorm activity, the first sign of a strong updraft on the approach is positive word to abandon that approach. A downdraft and increasing tailwind would follow that updraft, and either can put a low and slow airplane into the ground short of the runway.
Also on approach, if there is a thunderstorm in the vicinity, visualize how the outflow will affect the landing runway. If there is no wind effect at the airport now, what will it be when the outflow of the storm gets there? I well remember landing to the southwest one day when there was a thunderstorm approaching the airport from the northwest. As I began the landing maneuver, the wind shifted to a gusty deal out of the northwest and it took every bit of available control power to manage the drift. In retrospect I should probably have gone around.
That brings us to the single most important part of the tactics of thunderstorm avoidance. Storms move, strengthen, dissipate and are temporary events. No storm ever trapped an airplane. Every airplane lost in a storm was flown into that storm by the pilot and there's a high likelihood that the pilot knew he was trespassing on Mother Nature.
Does a high level of experience help? It can and should as long as lessons are learned from "been there and done that." On the other hand, if a pilot suffers under the illusion that he has seen it all, trouble might be brewing because there is no "all" in relation to flying weather.
So, as with so many things, it might be said that when dealing with thunderstorms and airplanes, patience is the only virtue and impatience is the only sin.