Into the Wild Grey Yonder
(continued) When we work with weather while flying, we are “nowcasting.” What is happening? Is it what you thought would happen? Is the groundspeed (and thus the wind aloft) what was projected? A serious error in a wind aloft forecast indicates structural flaws in the synopsis on which all the forecasts were based. With all the available and relatively low-cost equipment to receive and view weather, it is hard to see how any serious instrument pilot would fly without this equipment. Being able to see all the weather reports, satellite pictures, precipitation and lightning makes “nowcasting” so much easier. Where IFR pilots used to make do with terse reports from Flight Watch and perhaps word on precip from controllers, the really big picture is now available on portable or installed receivers. Again, though, as illustrated on that Asheville approach I told you about earlier, what you see is what you get regardless of any reports.
When weather is worse than forecast and slated to improve, there’s often a temptation to hold for that improvement. If the tanks are awash with fuel that might be okay for a while.
Also, say for example you are trying to limit approaches to two miles visibility and at least 1,000 feet of ceiling. If the weather is below minimums, it will first come up to bare minimums and improvement to a better condition might take quite a while.
So far, most of what I have talked about relates to weather. Try to be conservative about weather and the challenge might be more manageable. Air traffic control is different. It is basically the same from start to finish on every IFR flight and it should be used in good weather or bad. If you are IFR and get a circuitous routing that you don’t like, stick with it anyway, even if in good VFR conditions, to see what happens. This most likely happens in busy areas and the lesson learned might be to count on flying with extra fuel when operating in such areas.
Be especially conservative on fuel even when not in a busy area. By saying you are going to be picky on weather for arrivals, you increase the likelihood of diversions and changes in plan. An experienced pilot who is comfortable with a half a mile visibility and a 200-foot ceiling on an ILS has different requirements than does a pilot who is looking for markedly better weather.
Finally, whenever you are flying IFR, remember that while it is procedural in the sense that you match numbers on the panel with numbers on the chart, it is also variable, mainly in relation to weather. The accident record in light airplane IFR is bad mainly because the demands of single pilot IFR are great and are sometimes not met. It is true throughout a flying career but, in the beginning especially, you can do a better job of learning to use an IFR rating if you work at keeping the level of demand as low as possible. Some of that can be done in preflight work, but once you take off the activity peaks and you had best make a strong effort to know everything about everything as you bump along in those clouds.
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