| Advanced new models, like Dassault's Falcon 2000EX, are expected to fuel future bizjet sales. |
Honeywell intended to release its 10-year forecast of business jet aviation sales at the 2001 NBAA Convention in New Orleans. Shortly after the attacks on September 11th, the convention was postponed. Despite the shock waves reverberating a week later, Honeywell released its original forecast with no disclaimers, because like many in the industry, Honeywell analysts believe that business aviation will emerge from the events of September 11th stronger than ever. The forecast is based on responses from more than 2,000 chief pilots and flight department managers Honeywell surveyed.
8,900 Bizjets over Next 10 Years
The forecast envisions a 10-year market for 8,900 turbine-powered aircraft, valued at more than $136 billion. New models, better avionics, emerging markets and tougher regulations will all contribute to the expected strength of the market. In addition, Honeywell forecasts that by 2011 there will be 175 deliveries (worth about $10 billion) of commercial aircraft outfitted as bizjets (Boeing BBJ and Airbus ACJ, in addition to custom modifications). The market, say the forecast's authors, will continue to be driven by the introduction of new, more capable models, with several high-dollar models in development from major airframers.
The market for corporate jets will be even stronger, says Honeywell, especially for fractionally owned jets, as the airlines become an even less desirable mode of executive and personal travel. With a backlog of 2,700 aircraft, the major bizjet makers have a strong cushion, and despite a slowing of orders last summer, new opportunities arose, including a large order from United Airlines' startup fractional division. Despite expected slowing in the second half of the year, turbofan deliveries in the first six months were the strongest ever, the 400 bizjets representing a 10 percent increase over 2000's record levels.
In the short term, the forecast's authors predict a market that remains steady at around 800 units per year, with new models, especially super-midsized offerings, driving sales to levels of around 1,000 a year by the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, Honeywell forecasts the delivery of 4,034 bizjets, a 30 percent increase over the previous five-year period, when 3,108 new business jets were delivered.
