There has been much speculation about the safety of the many new mini jets now in development. It shocks me that there are more predictions about how these small jets will change aviation, including the safety record, than there is speculation about whether the airplanes can even be delivered at the prices some promise. But let's dive into the frenzy and just assume that some of the five- and six-seat jets with predicted prices far below single engine turboprops do become a reality and hundreds, or maybe thousands, fill the sky.
First, I don't know of anybody who is worrying about the safety of the new jets in terms of structure or performance. Though all of the companies involved plan to certify under the FAR Part 23 small airplane rules, that won't be new. The Citation CJ series of business jets, and the Beech Premier, are certified to Part 23 standards, and those airplanes have had good safety records. The CJs and Premiers meet the same single-engine performance requirements for engine failure during takeoff as the larger jets certified under the FAR 25 transport category, which ensures the airplane can continue safely if the engine fails at the worst possible moment. Cessna plans to certify its mini jet, the Mustang, to those same transport category takeoff standards.
Other light jet companies haven't said they will do the same, but it's uncertain whether the FAA will allow the others to deviate from that precedent. If any of the small jets that actually reach production fail to meet the transport category engine-out takeoff profile, that would be a measurable diminution in safety potential compared with all other jets currently in service. But jet engine failures are quite rare, so I wouldn't expect takeoff engine problems in such an airplane to be a big part of its safety record in any case.
The obvious safety concern is, of course, the pilots who will fly the new small jets. One group that always worries the insurance industry and others in the aviation safety business is owner-pilots. Though most of the companies that are attempting to develop the small jets say they expect a new type of aerial town car service to develop around the low-cost airplanes, everyone agrees that the first group to fly the airplanes will be the pilots who buy them. After all, what pilot wouldn't buy a jet if it costs less than an unpressurized piston twin? The expected thousands of micro jets that follow into the anticipated air taxi system will be flown by "professional" pilots, but they also cause some concern because they will be, due to the entry level status of the job, less qualified than pilots who traditionally have found their way into the left seat of a chartered or corporate business jet. In other words, a bunch of rich guys with no experience and less sense will team up with thousands of newly minted commercial pilots to terrorize the flight levels, threatening all of us "qualified" people who are now allowed up there.
