The apprentice system made a lot of sense in its day, though apprentices, from Ben Franklin on down through the generations, have had a less charitable view of the process. They felt a bit abused by the system, suffering through poor wages, difficult working conditions, long commitments and uncertain job prospects once they'd done their time. Sound familiar?
With a coming pilot shortage - -it's not marketing, people; its demographics -- the demand for pilots will be great. In the past this looming need has always meant good business for the flight schools. These days, not so much. What gives?
There are several drivers here, the most important of which, based on my conversations with young people and with admissions officers at a couple of flight schools, is the students' concern about wages. After the Colgan crash in Buffalo a couple of years ago I floated the idea of a national minimum wage for airline pilots, though Congress did not immediately write such legislation in response to my proposal. My idea was simply that by throwing a few extra bucks at pilots, as the NCAA is doing with some Division I student athletes, you can improve their quality of life enough to cut down on some of the drivers of fatigue and stress, namely long commutes and mountains of debt.
While Congress didn't go there, it instead introduced legislation that would mandate more time and an ATP for RJ pilots. The too simple idea is that an advanced rating and additional time makes for a safer pilot, which looking at the airline accident statistics--there appears no correlation between experience and accidents--is a dubious premise.
What it did accomplish was to throw even more uncertainty into the marketplace. How so?
Imagine you're a young person looking to enter a career. You've just found out that you'll need to invest a substantial sum of money into your training -- tuition and training bills in excess of $100,000 are the norm -- and then you find out that even after you've done that, you're going to have to get more time before the airlines will even give you an interview. That takes an already expensive education that will result in a low-paying job and adds on the uncertain expense that will be needed to tack on those extra hours -- most likely 700 or 800 extra hours. This scenario is playing with prospective students exactly as you’d expect it to.
It’s also already begun to undermine one of the most time-tested traditions for professional flight schools. When students graduate, they hang around and instruct for a while after that, building time, extending their college experience and even getting paid a little for the time building. With the coming 1500-hour mandate, however, these instructors are reluctant to leave, meaning that newly graduated students have nowhere to go to instruct, which further complicates the economics of the market.
The good news is that the rule doesn't take effect until August of 2013. So now is a great time to get a leg up, to get that ticket and hopefully catch on with a carrier. Just how history and the economy will affect that pathway is anybody's guess, but the potential for a great job after putting in some time moving on up through the ranks, is still very real.
And with the coming need for pilots, the market should respond at some point soon and start creating new pilots to fill those jobs, though the link between good pay and all the investment and hard work probably needs to be less tenuous not more. It’s a perfect time for the regionals to be proactive and raise starting pay to encourage their future pilots to starting training today.
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Submitted by w.hagen on November 08, 2011.
As a freshman college student and private pilot, I would have to agree wholeheartedly with this article. I seriously considered a potential career as a pilot, and still am. However, I just cannot not seem to justify it, especially financially. It does not make sense for me to go and pay $10,000s to train to be a pilot, when I can go to a top aerospace engineering college, almost completely covered by academic scholarships, and make twice what I could as a pilot initially. I think there are a lot of students who are in the same boat as me, who could potentially be smart and competent pilots. However, the smart pilots are turned away because they realize it just dose not make sense. I love flying, and I really would like to do it for a career. However, unless I can somehow justify it financially, even if only slightly, it dose not make sense. If we want the best pilots we are going to have to make it make sense for people like me to pursue such a career as opposed to more lucrative ones because the logical pilots we want are too logical to pursue it as a career currently.
Submitted by Terrence Donovan on November 08, 2011.
Great argument, Robert. However, you lost a little credibility by referring to NCAA Division I athletes as "students".
Submitted by injunear on November 08, 2011.
w.hagen I've been in your shoes for the last 8 years. It is hard to justify. Now that another hiring swing is in progress, the mental struggle is back. Take a look at the payscales and the hourly guarantees. You will be making less than half for quite some time. Will this shortage have any effect on compensation? I don't think so. I think loopholes are coming for the UND, ERAU, and maybe even ATP grads to sit in the the right seat with fewer hours. The airlines have to be looking forward to this "shortage". They get to replace a large portion of their staffing with people making significantly less.
Submitted by MN Pilot on November 08, 2011.
One of the things I have noted for the four decades I've been flying is that some things never change. One of the things that never seems to change is the fact that money is frequently not the major motivator for pilots pursuing a career in aviation.
Aviation is in fact a career path that people who TRULY love flying enter in to, and suffer whatever privations it takes to stay in aviation.
Now, that is not to suggest that this is right, but I've met many, many pilots who came up through the ranks in the most difficult of times and circumstances, were furloughed, rehired and furloughed again...etc. And, they stuck with it, not because of the big paycheck, but rather because of their burning passion for flying.
When I hear or read someone's comments that they "love" flying, but they can't make enough money at it, the first thing I think is that it's probably just as well that this person doesn't enter into professional aviation, because they don't have that fire in the belly, that ultimate desire to fly for a living.
And, that too is fine. Those folks often wind up in careers that permit them sufficient funds to pursue flying for recreation.
But, frankly, if you don't have that passion for flying, and I see fewer and fewer young people today with that determination, you probably aren't going to make it in commercial aviation.
FWIW
Submitted by rasutcliffe on November 08, 2011.
I started flying 30 years ago. I went pro in 1989, and hung up my headset in '94, lured away from aviation (non-scheduled air charter) by management opportunities in the Silicon Valley. A big part of that decision had to do with the constant financial struggles I experienced while earning beginners' wages. I was lucky enough to get into a charter operation, so the time was accrued going places in all conditions, flying bigger aircraft than I would have been in as an instructor. During my flying years I accrued 1300 hrs with high percentages of twin and turboprop time. I loved every minute of it, and I'd love to get back to flying, but I watch the activity of airports in the region as well as the activity level of a sampling of aircraft operated by charter and fractional operators (those flight stalker apps are really good for that), and I see a real dearth of activity. Given my direct observations of the industry, and knowing how many highly qualified pilots are unemployed now, I can't quite see any pilot shortage now or in the foreseeable future. Any replies intended to educate, or encourage me back the flock, are appreciated.
Submitted by Tom McDonald on November 09, 2011.
Salary Considerations:
I just finished budgeting salaries for a multi million dollar startup company that would require 15 to 20 million dollars of startup funds for the first 8 years. Hopefully we can bring back far more than that!
Here were the salary criteria: White collar trained personnel in a critical job that risked NO lives was $40,000 per year. $50,000 if they had direct experience. $60,000 expected by 3rd to 5th year or as a performance bonus to that level or higher. The company would be started in one of the lowest cost-to-live parts of the USA in the South East.
For life-protecting live-risking jobs where there is always a risk like for commercial pilots (even police have part time risk when compared to a pilot) I would not think of such low salaries. A pilot is always "on" making critical decisions from the night before to get sleep, through preflight, takeoff, monitoring the flight, and landing. Now-a-days they can't even drink without fear of loosing their license privileges so there is a significant sacrifice in their personal life.
I would expect to pay for an airline pilot flying passengers $60,000 per year entry level, $70k the 2nd year, and $80k the third. After 5 years $100k to $130k would be reasonable possibly through a company profits performance bonus. Pay less than this and they can't go to the dentist, afford a good gym, drive a dependable car, etc.. Even at $60k they will probably still live in a apartment.
Conceptually , they should make enough money that they can throw money at their problems so they can keep their mind on work (flying).
The last thing I would want is someone that needs a 2nd job to support a family or to improve their life. One FAA report I read told of 2 pilots, thankfully flying freight, for low salaries, which also worked a 2nd job in construction. One night they tried to land on top of a building in an industrial area that they thought was a landing strip! They had worked construction that day, were tired, were high on drugs, and as you can imagine did not do a full safety check preflight. The charter type freight airline had taken advantage of the glut of pilots on the market at the time to drive down their wages.
Low pay will raise the death rate. It is not rocket science to figure this out.
Submitted by PilotEricB on November 09, 2011.
Mr. Goyer's crystal ball is either defective, or awfully cloudy. There is not, and never will be, a wholesale "pilot shortage." Plain and simple. This hype has been foisted on us for decades by pilot schools desperate to keep the flow of students moving through their doors - regardless of whether jobs are waiting for them on the other end.
Yes, to be certain, there are times when airlines are hiring more than usual. If we compare the state of things today to the massive furloughs post-9/11 and again during the US recession, it might seem like happy days are here again. But what Mr. Goyer seems to overlook is the fact that there are still thousands of highly experienced, multi-thousand-hour ATP's on the street looking for work. Corporate flight departments are still closing. At least one regional airline I am aware of will be furloughing pilots by the end of this year. Some of these folks have left aviation permanently.
Quite simply, while there may be hiring demand for inexperienced regional FO's willing to work for poverty wages, the supply of highly experienced pilots looking for work has always exceeded the number of quality positions available. Mr. Goyer fulfills his role well as a cheerleader for the flight training /regional airline industry (both of whom heavily advertise in Flying) but the facts simply don't add up.
Submitted by Tones303 on November 09, 2011.
MN Pilot, I have observed 2 kinds of airline pilots. The ones who treat it as a job, a reasonably paying job and see flying for recreation as not for them. The other pilots are ones who can't wait to jump out of the Boeing or Airbus and get into thier G A aircraft or warbird. Those guys love to fly, and live for it.
I have also seen guys who see the international widebody airline flying as the pinnacle, they strive for it, doing the instructor thing, then getting that first break either with a regional airline or midnight freight mover. Then they move ever so steadily to command, then up the size of aircraft, always thinking the final rung will be worth it.
After 15 to 20 years, they will be on wife 2 or perhaps 3 if they have moved a lot. They will be systems managers, doing 1 hands on landing in 4 to stay current. They will be living less than half their life at home.
Just my 2 cents.
Submitted by delta_v on November 09, 2011.
Terrence,
I was an NCAA Division I head coach, men and women. Over a ten year period, and watched 0ver 95% of my STUDENT athletes graduate and go on to excellent careers. I regularly had a number of Academic All Americans on my squads. Aerospace engineering, chemistry, math...you name it, it was represented.
So, on behalf of all the student athletes you have tarred with the football and basketball brush: F@ck you!
Submitted by DeSouza on November 09, 2011.
No joke about your comments in general. I guess everyone has a point, but bottom line is that one has to feed him/her-self to exist. The disparity of cost to become a hirable pilot and the financial compensation to pay for the initial costs are definitely impractical. I believe in the argument that if one has enough passion for aviation he/she will be struggling to continue fulfilling that passion no matter what. However, those thoughts are utopia when it comes to actual financial necessities in the current market conditions. Pilots are in general [and I emphasize general] people that comes from a financial secured background. So, unless you have an above average money-earning family to back you up to become a career pilot, you better enlist to become a military pilot and have it all paid by the government, otherwise you are in a long haul to financial and social failure (yes, it takes money to raise a family too), independently of possible shortage of professionals.
Submitted by Thomas Boyle on November 09, 2011.
A minimum wage for pilots would change things. Today's pilots would face far more competition for job openings; and the competition would be tougher. Job security would probably suffer, as pilots would be more readily replaceable from the waiting supply. Passengers and airlines would benefit from higher-quality pilots. Society would see a small shift of talent from high-paid jobs (with high tax contributions) into a lower-paid but more fun/satisfying activity (flying), and another small shift of (slightly lower) talent from flying into unemployment.
Flying for a living is like being a musician. There are way too many people who "would like" to do that for a living, relative to the demand. If you could readily make a decent living in aviation, thousands of people now doing something else for a living would come flooding in. One of my flight instructors had a hard time deciding between being a doctor and being an airline pilot - at that's at the pay rates we have now, and that's AFTER he had completed his medical training and gone into practice. Many people now in white-collar jobs fantasize about getting out of the office, for a romantic life in the wide blue. The primary thing that stops them is the unromantically low pay. Create a meaningfully higher minimum wage for pilots, and many of them will make the switch.
If there were a mandated minimum wage for pilots, high enough to assure a comfortable living, people who now fly for a living would find themselves competing with a population that would otherwise have been doctors, lawyers, rocket scientists, engineers. In other words, much tougher competition. Good for the airlines and passengers, but bad for most of today's pilots - and bad for people who need doctors, lawyers, rocket scientists, and engineers. (Whether that's a good tradeoff for the passengers - more good pilots but slightly fewer doctors and scientists, I don't know.)
In both flying and music, aside from a handful of stars (chief test pilots and rock stars), you mostly see people making a modest living (whether teaching piano or flying the regionals), and many others who pursue it in their spare time (some making money, some not).
There is a simple rule to remember: if you want to make money, don't do for a living what people would willingly do for food - because they will.
Submitted by 747retired on November 09, 2011.
It is not the number of hours that count toward being a professional pilot, it is the quality of training. As a low time civilian pilot, I received outstanding training at my airline, earned 9 jet type ratings and enjoyed a 35 year career doing what I loved to do. The number of hours in a log book is not as important as the quality of training.
Submitted by Flingwing on November 09, 2011.
I am probably a rarity in this discussion, but my pilot training and subsequent flying have cost me nothing beyond the initial private pilot certificate. All flight time has been repaid through flight services rendered to others. I have logged over 10,000 hours and have never been an airlines pilot. I have little money but I fly a lot.
Since 1968 the atmosphere in aviation circles has changed dramatically. We hung around the airports, helped ( at no charge) others with the work that all airplanes and hangars generate, flew with airplane owners as often as we could, logged whatever legal time the owners would allow and enjoyed each other' s company. Now, the airport is often deserted. The cost of flying and training rises steadily whenever the quantity diminishes. I would venture that many airplane owners do not fly frequently because they have no friends to share costs with or to enjoy the company of. I encourage any young pilot to make friends with all airplane owners that they can, and make themselves available to fly on short notice.
Submitted by BrianHA on November 09, 2011.
I quite agree with pilot Eric B.
With all due respect to Mr. Goyer, I am not at all sure where you are getting this hype about a pilot shortage! The modest sized airport I fly my GA plane in and out of every week, has two university accredited flight schools. The young male and female attendees of both institutions can be seen day in and day out as I have for the last 6 years that I have been using this airport, all decked out in white shirts, navy blue pants and epaulets on the shoulders prancing around the flight line and the runways are non-stop abuzz with takeoffs and landings everyday.
The schools are churning out pilots by the hundreds as far as I can see Where are these people going? I am not sure about the airlines out there and who is hiring and who is not. But don't tell me there is pilot shortage. There are lots of them out there who know how to fly, but can't find a job.
Submitted by lnashjr on November 09, 2011.
From a current ATP flying two types of private jets, Part 91 and Part 135 and flying in a GA club - there is no pilot shortage. I began hearing this back in high school in the early 80's and bought into it. Here I am 25 years later, earning a professional wage currently, however, this has really been an up and down career at best! (pun intended!)
Over the past 25 years in aviation, I have experiences no less than 5 lay-offs. The most recent one lasted nearly a year and a half through the entire year of 2009 into 2010. I am just thankful that my wife of 20 years has ridden this roller coaster called "aviation" gracefully with me with an enormous dose of patience and understanding!
L
Submitted by robert goyer on November 10, 2011.
Sounds as though my next effort will be to prove the coming shortage. Keep your eye open for it and thanks for the great comments. Robert
Submitted by pilotdan21 on November 10, 2011.
I've been in this profession for 14 years and can honestly say that my children will not be following my footsteps if I have any say in it (and I consider myself lucky as being employed by one of the better Companies). Not to be dramatic, but unless there is a major paradigm shift, the risk far outways the reward. For anyone considering this profession, your time and effort would be better served in another field as one of the prime deficits of this occupation is the lack of a performance based promotional structure and general inability to make lateral or promotional moves with a few exceptions in the 91 world. The majority of would-be pilots being A-type personalities, this can be one of the most frustrating elements. You truly are at the mercy of the tides and timing. For those comfortable with having their future completely out of their control while paying it forward most of the time, this is for you. If I were to have it over, I would have vested my efforts elsewhere.
Submitted by pilotdan21 on November 10, 2011.
One clarification from above regarding timing...while it may be better in the next few years than it has been over the last 10, the competition for those jobs with career potential will far outweigh the vacancies. And many hard-working proficient pilots will be stuck in far less desirable positions as a result of the multitude of forces that are out of their control.
Submitted by pilotdan21 on November 10, 2011.
Last one, after reading the post above about pilot needing to have multiple jobs to make ends meet, I am writing this from the desk of my 2nd out of 3 running jobs to support a small family in a modest neighborhood with virtually no debt after 14 years of employment in the same industry (2 of which we partially sat out due to furlough).
Just feel a bit passionate about the subject and wanted to share the reality.
Submitted by Justbob on November 13, 2011.
Pilot Shortage??????
Do yourself a favor. Google "pilot shortage". You'll find articles predicting the "looming" pilot shortage every year since Al Gore invented the internet.
There is no pilot shortage in the U.S. There will be no pilot shortage in the U.S. There may be a shortage of pilots willing to work for $16,000 a year, but frankly I don't even see THAT happening any time soon.
I fly for a small corporate flight department. We recently posted a job for a PIC in our King Air. We received over 1000 resume's for that 1 job.
There is no pilot shortage.
Submitted by SocalFlyer on November 13, 2011.
Looking at the commercial pilot world from the outside as a strictly private, albeit commercially rated, pilot, it is hard for me to get a grip on the huge disparity between training cost and wages.
Obviously the “love of flying” factor must be truly powerful in order to drive any rational person into spending upwards of $100K to prepare for – and to then accept – a full time job paying $16K/year (assuming these are semi-accurate numbers).
I’m a great believer in the power of supply and demand, so I can’t buy into the notion that the government should artificially set pilot pay above what the market dictates. Neither can I see how higher wages would automatically provide “better” pilots, as those who are willing to fly for the miniscule wages offered are obviously highly motivated already.
I guess the bottom line is that while you can say the current situation isn’t “fair”, it is the way the universe is, and it will all work out
Submitted by robert goyer on November 15, 2011.
Boeing estimates that there will be 480,000 new pilot jobs worldwide over the next 20 years. Just what those jobs will pay, who will fill them and where they will come from are all battles to be fought here in the States and around the world. But believe me, if we don't train pilots to fly those airplanes--look at the orders we're seeing in Dubai--somebody else will.
Submitted by PilotEricB on November 15, 2011.
Robert,
Industry forecasts - whether from the FAA or airframe manufacturers - are notoriously inaccurate. Perhaps you recall the FAA's forecasts for thousands of VLJ's dotting the skies...
Boeing is in the business of selling airplanes. It would hardly be in their interest to admit the truth that thousands of highly experienced pilots are out of work and pounding the pavement - or have fled to other lines of work - simply because of the shortage of good-paying, stable careers for pilots with more than a couple thousand hours of flight time. The commenter who remarked on receiving 1,000 resumes for a King Air position is not lying. The story is the same all around the United States.
You might retort that the forecast calls for new pilot jobs "worldwide." That may be so - but let me assure you that many, if not most of those jobs will be created in markets outside the United States - and are consequently closed off to US citizens. A few foreign airlines are willing to hire ex-pat US airline pilots, but this is the exception rather than the rule. More to the point, what US pilot in their right mind would be willing to pull up stakes - move to, say, India - and work for a startup airline? The safety records I've seen so far have been abysmal.
The proof is in the pudding, Robert. So long as regional airlines still have thousands of doe-eyed youngsters clamoring to fill pilot positions - in spite of the poverty wages - where's the shortage?
Submitted by Hogey74 on November 16, 2011.
A couple of comments.
1. I'm a 37 year old about to finish a tertiary CPL course and people ask me why? I tell them that there are more commercial pilots over the age of 55 than under. No matter whatever compelling things anyone else tells you, that is a fact and I'd say the critical fact. I'm betting a fair bit of money on that.
2. It wasn't until the Colgan crash that I really understood how poor the pay is over there. If anyone would like to know what a minimum wage system looks like, here is a slightly out of date guide to our Australian one. The conditions and rules and are kind of interesting but the wage info starts after about page 30...
http://www.afap.org.au/files/RROI2261PX/Pilots%20GA%20AFAP.pdf
... as a guide, our dollar is similar to yours but our minimum wages are a lot higher (about $11.50 /hr) so overall our cost of living would be higher than yours. A Toyota Corolla costs $20k. A large meal deal at our version of Burger King is about $8. It costs about $200/hr to rent a newish 172.
I know plenty of people believe the market should always decide these things and they're right a lot of the time. But the market can be just plain crazy sometimes and if ever there was an argument for minimum wages, pilots would be it. $17k for Dash-8 aircrew? That is indefensible. At least when there are minimum wages, everyone is on a level playing field WRT setting airfares. Our low cost carriers are virgin and jetstar (.com.au). You can check out their airfares for the melbourne-sydney-brisbane sectors and I can tell you that their 737/a320 captains are on a minimum of $160k actual income.
Our government is so worried about this that they've brought in elaborate loans schemes for commercial pilots whereby they slowly starting paying back though the tax system once they hit about 50k income.
Submitted by lnashjr on November 29, 2011.
Re-post from blog:
Blog: Unmanned aircraft could lead to bleak future for pilots
Blogger Scott Spangler decries the trend toward unmanned aerial vehicles, which replace pilots with automation. "In aviation this means that one day in the not too distant future pilots will be minimum wage earners who fly a computer screen in a cubicle at some repurposed suburban strip mall," he writes.
Jetwhine.com (11/28)
Submitted by jmclarke82 on April 28, 2012.
There is no pilot shortage. If that were the case, then why are there so many commercial pilots still on furlough?
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