Student pilots, worried they don't have the right stuff, often ask me, "What makes a good pilot?" They're usually surprised when I don't cite physical coordination and natural ability. No, if I had to identify one personality trait that makes for a good (read safe) pilot, I'd have to say good judgment and the ability to anticipate. OK, that's two, but good judgment is really the result of anticipating-thinking ahead, imagining, "What if?" and then making an informed decision.
Have you ever pulled up at a toll booth behind another car, correct change jingling in your fist, and waited impatiently while the driver in the car in front digs through his pockets and then polls his passengers to take up a collection for the toll? Didn't he know he was coming to a toll? Didn't he see the series of Burma Shave-like signs that alerted, "Passenger Cars: Toll $1.75"?
The tardy toll payer is first cousin to the VFR pilot who interrupts other pilots calling in position reports as they maneuver in the pattern at an uncontrolled field to ask, "What's the active?" Didn't he listen before broadcasting? Didn't he anticipate from his preflight briefing (or inflight observations) the wind direction and the likely active runway? Didn't he check the AWOS frequency on the sectional chart and listen up before calling in? Didn't he think ahead?
The booth blocker is like the IFR pilot who waits until he's halfway down the localizer before burying his head to check the chart for the decision height for the approach he's flying. Imagine the ensuing gyrations if that's the moment he discovers he didn't anticipate and has the wrong volume of approach charts and the correct one is in the back seat.
The first definition of "anticipating" in my dictionary is: "To feel or realize beforehand; foresee." When you think about it, isn't that the purpose of preflight planning? Isn't the preflight designed so we can anticipate, before we begin a flight, the things that can go right and those that can go wrong as our flight progresses?
Some things are obvious. All but the most cavalier and foolhardy pilots have learned to anticipate the weather lying in wait. We start by talking with a Flight Service Station specialist or logging on to DUAT or another weather service and getting the current weather and the forecast, which, by definition, is simply an anticipation of future weather doings.
Once we know the forecast weather we can get an idea of whether the flight will be in visual conditions or whether we'll have to anticipate the need for flying an IFR approach and the possibility of having to divert to an alternate. The winds aloft forecasts-as unreliable as they are-give us a starting point for anticipating how much fuel we're going to need for the flight.
As you drive onto the airport, do you glance at the flag or wind sock to see where the wind's coming from so you can anticipate which runway you'll use for takeoff? If there are airplanes in the pattern do you watch them dance down the glideslope to get an idea of what effect the wind is having?
Taxiing out from the parking ramp or the fuel pump, I try to get the big picture of where any airplanes in the area are and what they're doing. I've already got a pretty good idea of the airplanes in the pattern, so it's the ones approaching to land that I'm most concerned about. The unicom party line works well when people use it properly. But more often than I'd expect, I hear pilots call inbound by simply asking, "Which way you landing?" When I do, I often pick up the mic and ask, "How far out are you and from which direction are you coming?"
